Last week I was invited to attend a membership breakfast for MetroMultifamily; a local organization for businesses that manage multifamily housing. At the breakfast were many great speakers but maybe some with misguided opinions.

The consensus of all the speakers was summed up spectacularly by the sponsor of the event, Servicemaster Clean, who said "We're still drowning but we're downing closer to shore." But there seemed to be a feeling, and a quite optimistic one at that, that the Portland rental market would be tightening up drastically in the semi-near future. This belief was supported by the seemingly larger market of renters brought on by the effects of the recession. Many homeowners switched to renters out of necessity and now the question on every manager's lips is, Will they stay renters or go back to owning.

Many of the illusions people held pre-recession were that owning meant wealth, money, and an ever-increasing investment. Unfortunately, this trend was broken by the unsustainable mortgage portfolios held by banks. Now many previous homeowners and potential homeowners are starting to understand the monumental risks associated with owning property, which could push many potential homeowners into the rental market for a good long time. But the speculated upward pressure in rents is not going to come from prior homeowners.

It will be the masses of young and middle-aged people who moved in with roommates or moved back home. Once the economy starts to bloom, these people will be the primary reason for increased demand for apartments. The roommates will separate and once again become single dwellers and the ones that moved back home will reemerge as renters. The possible influx of renters could bring prosperity to many of the multifamily management companies around Portland.

But I believe many have overlooked the existing renters - the ones not badly effected by the recession who were able to maintain their housing situation. These are the people who still have good credit, haven't gone through bankruptcy, possibly holding a little nest egg whose purchasing power has greatly increased in light of the currently deflated housing prices. These are the future homeowners. These are the people who will be exiting the rental market and moving into the owning market, and there are quite a few of them out there.

This past month saw a 27% increase from the previous month in new-home sales. This statistic is upwardly biased by the tax credit deadline, which is at the end of this month, but what the statistic does tell us is that people are not as scared as many might have believed. And with the banks' purse strings tightened, it seems unlikely that the same disaster will strike again in the near future.